The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge targets the production of 35 billion gallons of SAF by 2050. Meeting this demand would require over 600 million tons per year of biomass (at an assumed conversion yield of 55 gallons per dry ton). If rail, marine and offroad are also to be decarbonized by 2050, this demand could be roughly doubled to 1.3 billion tons of biomass per year. In order to assess the United States' potential to meet future decarbonization goals, the Department of Energy's 2023 Billion-Ton Report, or BT23, quantifies the nation’s biomass production capacity. BT23 results suggest that energy crops represent the largest single source of supply potential that could be leveraged to meet future demand—roughly 350 to 650 million tons per year at reference prices, and more if algae crops are included.Energy Crop Potential&nbsp; A range of perspectives about energy crops exist among diverse stakeholders. Skeptics raise concerns about food versus fuel and indirect land use change, while optimists point to benefits of improved soil organic carbon and rural incomes. Few would claim that there’s no potential role for energy crops in a decarbonization solution, and all would agree that there’s a limit to the volume of energy crops that can be produced within resource constraints and competing demands. The following is a summary of how researchers quantified U.S. energy crop production capacity for the BT23 and considerations regarding the potential role of energy crops in a growing bioeconomy and in national agricultural systems.Energy crops, also known as biomass crops or dedicated energy crops, can provide biomass resources for a growing bioeconomy. Energy crops explored in the BT23 include herbaceous energy crops (switchgrass, miscanthus and biomass sorghum), woody energy crops (poplar, willow and pine), and intermediate oilseed crops (pennycress, carinata and camelina). These species were modeled as representative crop options in the BT23 because county-level yield and cost data were available for the lower 48 states, though other crop options can be employed. A broad definition of energy crops includes algae, which were explored separately in the BT23.Energy crops offer the advantage of supply management in terms of quality and quantity. Each energy crop presents a unique suite of attributes in terms of cost, value and environmental performance. Perennial energy crops benefit from infrequent establishment costs and soil disturbance, though annual energy crops may be attractive from the perspective of adoption and integration with current farming. Woody crops provide increased flexibility in harvest scheduling, while C4 (i.e., fast-growing) herbaceous crops provide high annual yields. Intermediate oilseed crops have relatively low biomass yields but provide highly convertible oils and coproducts with reduced land competition due to offseason production. They also enhance soil conservation in rotation with conventional crops.Algae crops can be produced without productive lands, but they are currently more expensive to produce than terrestrial crops. Each crop option can play a role in a long-term decarbonization strategy.Mature markets will dictate which energy crops are produced, where and when. Under a free market, farmers may choose to grow energy crops not only on unproductive lands. There is a continuum of cropland quality, with different crops having comparative advantages in different regions and land types. To analyze potential farmer response to a market for energy crops, researchers at Oakridge National Laboratory modeled where energy crops have comparative economic advantages over other crop options. County-level inputs in this approach include cropland area, current practices, crop yields, costs of production and projected demands for food, feed, fiber and exports. Results from this approach indicate that conventional crops like corn and soy “win” against cellulosic biomass crops on prime cropland, whereas cellulosic energy crops show greatest competitiveness outside the corn belt. BT23 results provide geographic distributions of how much and what types of energy crops would be produced under a range of scenarios.Integrated Landscape Management&nbsp; The BT23 simulates energy crop potential at national scale and at county-level resolution. However, farmers can use subcounty- and subfield-level strategies like integrated landscape management to allocate energy crops where they have maximum potential and environmental efficiency. For example, portions of fields that may be problematic for cultivation of annuals may be better suited for perennial energy crops such as switchgrass. A body of research indicates that with strategic allocation of perennial energy crops on the landscape, biomass production can be increased, impacts on conventional food crops can be mitigated, and environmental benefits like water quality can be enhanced.Intermediate Oilseed Crops&nbsp; New in the 2023 version of the Billion-Ton Report are intermediate (i.e., in winter rotation between other crops) oilseeds. Also known as winter cover crops, species like pennycress, carinata and camelina can be planted in late summer after harvest. Following establishment in the fall, they can provide vegetative cover and soil conservation benefits in the winter, when fields may otherwise have soil exposed to erosion. The seed can be harvested in the spring for high-value oil and meal products. By producing in the offseason between other crops like corn and soy, the intermediate oilseed crops can increase farm production with minimal impact on existing crop rotations while contributing to soil health and water quality.Food vs. Fuel and Economic Impacts&nbsp; As discussed, energy crops are likely to be produced on subprime cropland. Production on subprime and marginal agricultural lands could reduce land competition. However, if a market emerges for biomass, farmers may decide to grow energy crops not only on land that offers low productivity. Thus, it would be an oversimplification to say there would be no interactions with conventional crop markets if energy crops are produced at scale. In the BT23 mature-market medium scenario, modeled production of about 400 million tons of energy crops has small long-term impacts on corn, soy and wheat production (up to a 3% decrease) and food prices (up to 0.7% increase). These changes are well within historic annual variability (e.g., corn prices range from about $3 to $8 per bushel from 2018 to the present). But results also show farm net incomes increase 25% to 30% due to a mix of energy crop revenues, commodity price increases and incomes from agricultural residues. The economic impacts are sensitive to crop yield assumptions, with higher crop yields showing decreased impacts on conventional crops and increased incomes for farmers.From the Past to the Future&nbsp; Research on energy crop potential has established a wealth of information about yields, costs, economic impacts and environmental effects. For example, the Regional Feedstock Partnership, active from 2008 to 2014, included representatives from land-grant universities organized under the Sun Grant Initiative as well as from the Departments of Energy and Agriculture, along with industry stakeholders. The RFP provided field trial data of energy crops, used to model yields, production and economic availability in the Billion-Ton Reports. In 2024, the U.S. DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office announced the Regional Resource Hubs for Purpose-Grown Energy Crops funding opportunity announcement. The goal of the FOA is to support research, development and demonstration of low-carbon-intensity, purpose-grown energy crops to meet future decarbonization goals.In conclusion, energy crops show potential to add between 350 to 650 million tons of biomass production capacity per year. Unlike some biomass resources, energy crops will not be available if markets for them do not develop. Energy crops represent a key part of the nation’s biomass production portfolio, which can respond to future markets to help meet decarbonization goals while providing economic and environmental benefits. Author: Matthew Langholtz&nbsp; Natural Resource Economist, Bioenergy Group&nbsp; Oak Ridge National Laboratory&nbsp; langholtzmh@ornl.gov&nbsp; &nbsp;

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Energy crops represent a key part of the nation’s biomass production portfolio.

The Growth Potential of Energy Crops

The Growth Potential of Energy Crops

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The Growth Potential of Energy Crops