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EIA: July STEO maintains 2025, 2026 production forecasts for biobased diesel

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By Erin Krueger

July 10, 2025

Advanced Biofuels Business 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2025 and 2026 biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 8.

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U.S. fuel ethanol capacity fell slightly in April, while biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity held steady, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on June 30. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to the previous month.

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XCF Global Inc. on July 8 provided a production update on its flagship New Rise Reno facility, underscoring that the plant has successfully produced SAF, renewable diesel, and renewable naphtha during its initial ramp-up.

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The U.S. EPA on July 8 hosted virtual public hearing to gather input on the agency’s recently released proposed rule to set 2026 and 2027 RFS RVOs. Members of the biofuel industry were among those to offer testimony during the event.

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President Trump on July 4 signed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” The legislation extends and updates the 45Z credit and revives a tax credit benefiting small biodiesel producers but repeals several other bioenergy-related tax incentives.

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The International Energy Agency in June published its World Energy Investment 2025 report, predicting that investment in liquid biofuels, biogases and low-emissions hydrogen will increase 30% this year to a record high of nearly $25 billion.

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The U.S. EPA on June 18 announced 1.75 billion RINs were generated under the RFS in May, down from 2.07 billion that were generated during the same period of last year. Total RIN generation for the first five months of 2025 reached 9.06 billion.

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The U.S. EPA on June 13 released a proposed rule to set strong 2026 and 2027 RFS RVOs. The rulemaking also aims to limit the participation of imported fuels and feedstocks, eliminate eRINs, and reduce the 2025 cellulosic RVO.

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Total U.S. biofuels production, including ethanol, renewable diesel, biodiesel and other biofuels, including SAF, averaged a record 1.39 million barrels per day last year, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on June 9.

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The U.S. EIA reduced its 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for a category of biofuels that includes SAF in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 10. The forecast for 2025 renewable diesel production was also revised down.

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AM Green and the Port of Rotterdam Authority signed a memorandum of understanding to focus on building a green energy supply chain between India and Northwestern Europe via Rotterdam. This includes the supply of bunkering fuels and SAF.

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The U.S. Department of Energy on May 30 released an updated version of its 45ZCF-GREET modeling tool to account for new feedstocks and methods of production, including ethanol from corn wet-milling and natural gas from coal-mine methane.

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Biomass Magazine has announced the dates for the 19th annual International Biomass Conference & Expo. The event is scheduled to be held March 31-April 2, 2026, in Nashville, Tennessee, at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center.

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Clean Fuels Alliance America on May 22 delivered a letter to U.S. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, urging him to set the 2026 RFS biomass-based diesel volume at no less than 5.25 billion gallons and allow continued growth in the 2027 volumes.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2025 and 2026 forecasts for renewable diesel and “other biofuel” production, which includes SAF, in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released May 6.

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Reps. Mike Carey, R-Ohio, and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, on May 1 introduced legislation that aims to retroactively extend the biodiesel blenders tax credit (BTC) and the second-generation biofuel producer tax credit.

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A new study commissioned by Clean Fuels Alliance America shows the U.S. biomass-based diesel industry generated $42.4 billion in economic activity in 2024, supported 107,400 jobs and paid $6 billion in annual wages.

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A broad coalition representing more than 350 trucking fleets, shippers, and supporters of freight movement is urging Congress to extend the biodiesel blenders’ tax credit to lower supply chain costs and protect consumers from inflationary pressures.

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Phillips 66 released Q1 financial results on April 25, reporting reduced pre-tax earnings for its renewable fuels segment despite increased production volumes. The changing tax credit structure is one factor that impacted earnings.

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On April 23, the Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) met with officials in the U.S. EPA to convey the vital importance of domestic biofuel production to the Trump-Vance administration’s energy dominance policy agenda.

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Desmet has been awarded a new contract by LG-ENI Biorefining, a joint venture between LG Chem and ENI Italy, to will deliver a HVO pretreatment plant in Daesan, South Korea. The biorefinery will produce SAF, renewable diesel and naphtha.

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CoBank latest quarterly research report highlights current challenges facing the biobased diesel industry. The report cites policy uncertainty and trade disruptions due to tariff disputes as factors impacting biofuel producers.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its 2025 forecasts for renewable diesel and biodiesel in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 10. The outlook for “other biofuel” production, which includes SAF, was raised.

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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. has reported that its biorefinery in Prince George, British Columbia, operated at 88% capacity last year. A final investment decision on the company’s proposed SAF project is expected by year end.

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The 2025 International Biomass Conference & Expo, held March 18-20 in Atlanta Georgia, featured of insightful discussions, cutting-edge technology showcases, and unparalleled networking opportunities.

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Clean Fuels Alliance America is urging the U.S. EPA to establish robust, timely RFS volumes for 2026 and beyond and suggesting the agency set the 2026 RFS renewable volume obligation (RVO) for biomass-based diesel at 5.25 billion gallons.

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Aemetis Inc. released fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results on March 13, reporting increased revenues for its U.S. ethanol and biogas operations as well as its biodiesel operations in India.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its outlook for 2025 and 2026 renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 11.

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MOL Group has produced a diesel fuel containing hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at the refinery of Slovnaft in Bratislava. The quality of the products has been verified by radioisotope analysis.

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The U.S. EIA maintained its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 11. The production outlook for other biofuels, including SAF, was also maintained.

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