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EIA maintains renewable diesel, SAF production forecasts in June STEO

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By Erin Krueger

June 10, 2026

Advanced Biofuels Business 

The U.S. EIA maintained its 2026 and 2027 production forecasts for renewable diesel in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 9. The production outlooks for “other biofuels,” defined to include SAF, were also maintained.

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Earlier this year, the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) launched a major study to examine the sustainable fuel options for aviation, international shipping, long-haul trucking, and freight rail. The two-year study will be complete in 2028.

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U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on June 4 confirmed that release of the USDA’s feedstock guidelines to inform 45Z clean fuel production credit implementation “is imminent” with release scheduled for “this summer.”

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XCF Global Inc. on June 1 announced the successful delivery and receipt of the process catalyst at its New Rise Renewables Reno refinery, marking a pivotal operational milestone in the refinery's modernization program.

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Aemetis Inc. announced on May 21 that the Capital Programs & Climate Financing Authority in California has adopted an initial resolution related to potential future issuance of up to $1.1 billion of tax-exempt bonds for Aemetis projects.

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Acelen Renewables on May 21 announced it has secured $1.5 billion to develop a biorefinery in Brazil that will have the capacity to produce 1 billion liters (264.17 million gallons) of SAF renewable diesel. Operations are expected to begin in 2029.

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More than 1.93 billion RINs were generated under the RFS in April, up 3% when compared to the same month of last year, according to data released by the U.S. EPA on May 21. Total RIN generation for the first four months of 2026 reached 7.51 billion.

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Sky Quarry Inc. has announced the execution of a MOU with Southern Energy Renewables Inc. and DevvStream Corp. focused on fuel innovation, refinery integration, and low-carbon fuel development, including opportunities involving SAF.

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Bangchak Group has launched Thailand’s first commercial production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from the country’s first 100% HEFA-SPK SAF stand alone production unit at Bangchak Phra Khanong Refinery.

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Hazer Group Ltd. on May 12 announced it has entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Continual Renewable Ventures to assess opportunities for developing low carbon liquid fuels (LCLF) production in Australia.

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The Ontario government on May 8 announced it is investing $5.5 million to help Greenwater Technology produce renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from mill byproducts and underused wood.

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BDI-BioEnergy International and Ghent Renewables have successfully commissioned an industry-leading feedstock pretreatment plant at North Sea Port in Ghent, Belgium. The plant will strengthen the supply chain for sustainable fuels, including SAF.

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The U.S. EIA increased its forecast for 2026 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 12. The 2026 forecasts for biodiesel and other biobased diesel fuels, which includes SAF, were maintained.

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Topsoe has entered into an agreement with Texas based, BioVeritas. The agreement will enable fuel producers to license Topsoe’s HydroFlex technology alongside the BioVeritas Process to produce renewable fuels from second-generation feedstocks.

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The U.S. exported nearly 50,000 barrels per day (b/d) of renewable diesel and other biofuels—a category which includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—in the second half of 2025 (2H25), about 20% of the combined production for those fuels.

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Par Pacific Holdings Inc. on May 5 confirmed that its Hawaii renewable fuels facility began operations in April. The biorefinery has the capacity to produce 61 MMgy of renewable diesel, SAF and other renewable fuels.

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Sasol has reached a major milestone in South Africa’s energy and industrial transition, with Natref becoming the first refinery in Africa to achieve product sustainability certification for key fuels production pathways.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity expanded in February, according to data released by the U.S. EIA. Biodiesel production capacity and production capacity for renewable diesel and associated biofuels remained steady.

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Phillips 66 released Q1 financial results on April 29, reporting a decrease in pre-tax loss for its renewable fuels segment. As economics for biobased diesel fuels continue to improve, the company expects to see additional improvement in Q2.

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Restaurant Technologies Inc. recycled a record 393 million pounds of used cooking oil (UCO) in 2025. Nearly 100% of the UCO was manufactured into renewable diesel or biodiesel for vehicles on the road, or into SAF for aircraft.

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Valero Energy Corp. on April 30 released first quarter financial results, reporting a profitable three-month period for both its ethanol segment and Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, which produces renewable diesel and SAF.

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Rep. Mike Carey, R-Iowa, has introduced the Strengthening Economic and Energy Development Act, a bill that aims to reinstate the $1 per gallon 40A biodiesel tax credit through 2029. Taxpayers could claim either the 40A credit or the 45Z credit.

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The government of Queensland, Australia, has announced it will invest $25 million to support a project that will enable renewable diesel production at Ampol’s Lytton oil refinery. The project could expand in the future to include SAF production.

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Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, pressed U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on his support for biofuels and the administration’s request to reduce DOE funding for renewable fuels by 98% during an April 16 congressional hearing.

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Topsoe has been selected by Abundia Global Impact Group to deliver its HydroFlex technology for multiple plastic waste-to-fuel facilities in North America that will produce chemical feedstock, diesel and SAF.

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The U.S. EPA has approved a fuel pathway filed by Summit Next Gen LLC for the production of renewable diesel and SAF from undenatured sugarcane ethanol. The pathway was approved on Jan. 6 and publicly released by the agency on April 20.

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Nearly 1.93 billion RINs were generated under the RFS in March, up 1% when compared to March 2025, according to data released by the U.S. EPA on April 16. Total RIN generation for the first three months of the year reached nearly 4.9 billion.

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On April 7, U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development Montana State Director Bill Warden announced the agency is investing in the future of Montana’s biofuel industry through Beaverhead Tourism Council in Dillon, Montana.

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The 2026 International Biomass Conference & Expo, produced by Biomass Magazine and organized by BBI International, successfully concluded after three days of in-depth discussions, technology showcases, and high-value networking opportunities.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2027 renewable diesel and production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. The forecast for the production of “other biofuels,” including SAF, was maintained.

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