The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its outlook for 2025 biodiesel and renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Sept. 9. The 2026 production outlook for “other biofuels,” which includes for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), was revised up.The EIA currently expects renewable diesel production to average 200,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s outlook of 210,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that renewable diesel production will average 260,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;Net imports of renewable diesel are currently expected to average -30,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, compared to last month’s respective forecasts of -20,000 barrels per day. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 30,000 barrels per day last year.&nbsp;The EIA maintained its forecasts that renewable diesel consumption will average 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 220,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;The EIA reduced its forecast for 2025 biodiesel production to 80,000 barrels per day, down from last month’s outlook of 90,000 barrels per day. The agency also revised down its forecast for 2026 biodiesel production to 90,000 barrels per day, down from the August forecast of 100,000 barrels per day. Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day last year.&nbsp;Net imports of biodiesel are expected to average zero barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Net imports of biodiesel were at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;Biodiesel consumption is currently expected to average 80,000 barrels per day this year and 90,000 barrels per day next year, compared to last month’s respective forecasts of 90,000 barrels per day and 100,000 barrels per day.&nbsp;The EIA maintained its forecast that the production of “other biofuels” will average 40,000 barrels per day. “Other biofuels” are defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel including SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline; and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization. The production of “other biofuels” is expected to expand to 50,000 barrels per day next year, up from last month’s forecast of 40,000 barrels per day. The production of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;Net imports of “other biofuels” are expected to be at zero in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged when compared to both the August STEO and last year. The consumption of “other biofuels” is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year, a forecast maintained from last month. Moving into 2026, the consumption of “other biofuels” is expected to reach 50,000 barrels per day, up from last month’s forecast of 40,000 barrels per day. The consumption of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.&nbsp;

2025-09-09 - EIA reduces 2025 forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel production  (3 publications)

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The U.S. EIA reduced its outlook for 2025 biodiesel and renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Sept. 9. The 2026 production outlook for other biofuels, which includes SAF, was revised up.

EIA reduces 2025 forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel production

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