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CoBank predicts modest growth in renewable diesel, SAF capacity next year

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By Erin Voegele

December 18, 2024

Policy Feedstocks Markets 

CoBank predicts that U.S. production of renewable diesel and associated fuels will experience a modest boost in 2025 but cautions that policy uncertainty looms over administration of the RFS program, SREs and the impact of potential tariffs.

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Congress on Dec. 17 released the text of a short-term funding bill that aims to avoid a partial government shutdown. The package includes provisions allowing year-round sales of E15 and enacting a new one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.

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Biomass Magazine has released the agenda for the 18th Annual International Biomass Conference & Expo. The event will be held March 18-20 in Atlanta, Georgia, and features tracks focused on pellets, biomass power and thermal, biogas and RNG, and SAF.

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Parkland announced it has successfully produced Canada’s first batch of low carbon aviation fuel (SAF) at its Burnaby Refinery in British Columbia. The fuel was primarily produced from non-food grade canola oil and tallow feedstocks.

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Sens. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, Roger Marshall, R-Kan., and four of their colleagues on Dec. 13 sent a letter to U.S. EPA Administrator Michael Regan regarding surging imports of used cooking oil (UCO), much of which comes from China.

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The White House OMB on Dec. 13 published the Fall 2024 Unified Agenda and Regulatory Plan, which outlines regulatory actions under development by federal agencies related to the RFS, biofuel infrastructure and CO2 pipeline safety.

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Ethanol groups urged congress to extend the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit and ensure the credit takes a broad approach to climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices in comments filed with the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee on Dec. 13.

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Pathway Energy, a developer of ultra carbon-negative fuels projects, debuted on Dec. 12 as a wholly owned subsidiary of Nexus Holdings, announcing the first in a series of commercial-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) facilities.

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Drax Group and Pathway Energy LLC have reached heads of terms on a multi-year deal that could see Drax supply over 1 million metric tons of sustainable biomass pellets each year to Pathway’s proposed SAF plant on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine and BBI International are now accepting speaker presentation proposals for the 2025 International Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo (FEW). The event is scheduled for June 9-11, 2025, in Omaha, Nebraska.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel consumption its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Dec. 10. The 2024 and 2025 forecasts for renewable diesel and SAF production were maintained.

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Darling Ingredients Inc. on Dec. 10 announced that Avfuel Corp. took the first delivery of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) produced by Diamond Green Diesel, a 50/50 joint venture between Darling Ingredients and Valero Energy Corp.

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The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 10. The estimate for 2023-’24 soybean use in biofuel was revised down.

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The USDA on Dec. 6 delivered an interim final rule setting technical guidelines for climate-smart agriculture crops used as biofuel feedstocks to the White House OMB. OMB review marks a final step before a rule is promulgated.

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Formula 1 has announced it is expanding its investment in SAF through a new program developed with Global Partner Qatar Airways. The expansion builds upon the previously announced investment alongside Global Logistics Partner DHL.

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North Sea Port and Ghent-based Terra Mater BV are collaborating with the Brazilian group Petrom to produce SAF and basic chemicals. Terra Mater will utilize its proprietary 2X Alcohol-to-Jet technology, developed in Ghent, for this venture.

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Topsoe and Sasol have been selected to deliver technologies for German Aerospace Center’s (DLR) sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production demonstration plant. Construction on the e-fuels project began in October.

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New deep-dive videos about the U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office's 2023 Billion-Ton Report (BT23) are now available to help users access and apply the report findings and associated online data resources.

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The U.S. EPA on Dec. 5 issued a proposed rule to partially waive the compliance year 2024 RVO for cellulosic biofuel. The rulemaking also proposes to extend the 2024 RFS compliance deadline and revise certain RFS biogas regulations.

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California Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, R-San Deigo, on Dec. 2 introduced a bill that aims to repeal the Low Carbon Fuel Standard regulations approved by the California Air Resources Board on Nov. 8.

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Phillips 66 and United Airlines have signed an agreement under which Phillips 66 will supply sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to United Airlines at Chicago O’Hare International Airport (ORD) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX).

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MAIRE S.p.A. through its subsidiary MyRechemical, has been awarded by DG Fuels LCC an early engineering, licensing and process design package contract based on its NX Circular gasification technology for a SAF plant located in Nebraska.

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Enilive has announced a new agreement with easyJet to supply a number of flights from Milan Malpensa Airport with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The two companies have also signed a letter of intent for the supply of SAF at other Italian airports.

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The ABFA is urging the Biden administration to immediately issue the guidance necessary for the industry to claim the 45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit. The group is also calling on Congress to extend the existing blender credits.

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TotalEnergies and Saudi Investment Recycling Company on Dec. 3 announced the signing of a joint development and cost sharing agreement (JDCSA) to assess the development of a SAF production unit in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

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U.S. ethanol and biodiesel capacity held steady in September, while renewable diesel capacity fell slightly, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on Nov. 29. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to the previous month.

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The U.K.’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate was signed into law on Nov. 18 and is set to come into force on Jan. 1, 2025. The government has also launched a new Jet Zero Taskforce to revamp efforts to make greener air travel a reality.

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International Airlines Group on Nov. 25 announced a new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchase agreement with e-SAF producer Infinium, which plans to supply the UK market with power-to-liquid e-SAF from late 2026.

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Firefly Green Fuels, a British sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) developer, on Nov. 15 signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Sanepar, one of Brazil’s largest water and sanitation companies.

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Clean Fuels Alliance America on Nov. 26 thanked Reps. Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill., and Mike Carey, R-Ohio, for urging the IRS “to ensure that taxpayers’ registrations under §45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit are completed before January 1, 2025.”

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